A review of the Governments Plan to Build 50,000 – Part 1

Where are we now - Planning Approvals versus Completions over the last 5 years

Ireland's housing sector has faced significant challenges over the past five years, with a notable disparity between planning permissions granted and actual housing completions. This gap has implications for meeting the nation's housing demands and understanding the scale of planning submissions required to achieve future targets.

Housing Completions and Planning Permissions: A Five-Year Overview

In 2024, housing completions in Ireland declined by 6.7% compared to 2023, totalling approximately 30,300 units. This downturn was particularly evident in apartment constructions, which saw a 24% decrease nationally and a 27% decline in Dublin.

The number of planning permissions granted in 2024 was the lowest in six years, with only 35,000 homes approved, down from 41,000 in 2023.

This decline in approvals has raised concerns about the future pipeline of housing projects.

Historically, there has been a significant gap between the number of planning permissions granted and actual housing completions. For instance, between 2018 and 2024, the cumulative completion rate for apartments was less than one-third of the cumulative planning permissions granted for such units. In contrast, traditional housing units had a higher completion rate, averaging around 80% of the permissions granted.

Planning Submissions Needed to Construct 50,000 Homes Annually

To achieve the ambitious goal of constructing 50,000 homes per year, a substantial increase in planning submissions is necessary. Given the current attrition rates—where a significant portion of approved projects are delayed or not commenced—it's estimated that planning applications for approximately 125,000 units would need to be submitted annually.

This projection accounts for potential delays, refusals, and non-commencements that commonly occur within the planning and construction processes. Addressing these inefficiencies is crucial to ensure that a higher percentage of approved projects transition to completed homes.

Challenges and Considerations

Several factors contribute to the disparity between planning permissions and housing completions:

• Planning System Inefficiencies: Delays, objections, and judicial reviews can prolong the time between permission and construction.
• Economic Factors: Rising construction costs and inflation can render projects financially unviable, leading to postponements or cancellations.
• Infrastructure Constraints: Lack of essential services like water, energy, and transport can hinder the commencement of approved projects.

To bridge the gap between planning permissions and housing completions, comprehensive reforms are needed. Streamlining the planning process, ensuring financial viability for developers, and investing in essential infrastructure are pivotal steps toward meeting Ireland's housing needs.